Dolphins vs Lions — Week 8, 2022
The Dolphins took over leading 31-27 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 31, Lions 27. Dolphins won 31-27 — the drive time expired.
Dolphins ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 36, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.3% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 87.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to MIA 45 for 9 yards (55-D.Barnes).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to MIA 47 for 2 yards (96-I.Buggs, 55-D.Barnes).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at DET 34 for 19 yards (99-J.Okwara).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to DET 34 for no gain (34-A.Anzalone, 93-J.Paschal).
- (1:51) 31-R.Mostert right end to DET 32 for 2 yards (96-I.Buggs).
- (1:47) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill to DET 24 for 8 yards (1-J.Okudah).
- (1:40) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to DET 24 for no gain.
- (:58) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to DET 25 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 1-T.Tagovailoa kneels to DET 26 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.75 pts |
| QB keep | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -1.82 pts |
| Curl route | -2.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.27 pts |
| End-around | -4.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.05 pts |
| Deep post | -7.27 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.