Buccaneers vs Seahawks — Week 10, 2022
The Buccaneers took over leading 21-16 with 3:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 21, Seahawks 16. Buccaneers won 21-16 — the drive time expired.
Buccaneers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 17, 3:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 85.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:55) (Shotgun) 29-R.White left guard to TB 18 for 1 yard (99-A.Woods, 93-S.Harris).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to TB 31 for 13 yards (8-C.Bryant).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 29-R.White left guard to TB 34 for 3 yards (51-B.Irvin).
- (2:25) 29-R.White up the middle to TB 46 for 12 yards (26-R.Neal).
- (2:18) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 6-J.Jones to SEA 37 for 17 yards (26-R.Neal; 56-J.Brooks).
- (2:00) 29-R.White right tackle to SEA 19 for 18 yards (56-J.Brooks).
- (1:42) 12-T.Brady kneels to SEA 19 for no gain.
- (1:01) 12-T.Brady kneels to SEA 20 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 12-T.Brady kneels to SEA 21 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.30 pts |
| Curl route | -2.41 pts |
| End-around | -4.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.42 pts |
| Deep post | -7.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.