Saints vs Panthers — Week 18, 2022
The Saints took over tied at 7 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 7, Panthers 10. Panthers won 10-7 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 10, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 53.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 19 for 9 yards (6-J.Norman).
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 25 for 6 yards (38-M.Hartsfield; 93-B.Roy).
- (3:36) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 82-A.Trautman to NO 43 for 18 yards (38-M.Hartsfield). Pass 5, YAC 13
- (2:56) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right end to NO 49 for 6 yards (7-S.Thompson).
- (2:11) 41-A.Kamara left guard to NO 49 for no gain (95-D.Brown; 7-S.Thompson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 89-R.Shaheed.
- (1:57) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-50-A.Dowell.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.87 pts |
| Curl route | -1.93 pts |
| QB keep | -1.98 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.99 pts |
| Inside run | -2.06 pts |
| Play action | -2.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.53 pts |
| Deep post | -3.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.