Giants vs Commanders — Week 13, 2022
The Giants took over tied at 20 with 4:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 20, Commanders 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 14, 4:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 53.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NYG 21 for 7 yards (36-D.Johnson).
- (3:35) 26-S.Barkley left guard to NYG 26 for 5 yards (52-J.Davis).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 18-I.Hodgins to NYG 36 for 10 yards (31-K.Curl; 59-J.Bostic).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 18-I.Hodgins to NYG 48 for 12 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger pushed ob at WAS 48 for 4 yards (22-D.Forrest).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at WAS 45 for 3 yards (36-D.Johnson).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at WAS 45 for 0 yards (93-J.Allen).
- (1:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to WAS 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.60 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Curl route | -0.90 pts |
| Play action | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Quick out | -1.31 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.55 pts |
| Outside run | -1.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Inside run | -2.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.73 pts |
| Deep post | -2.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.