Bears vs Texans — Week 3, 2022
The Bears took over tied at 20 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bears 23, Texans 20. Bears won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 12, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 54.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) 24-K.Herbert left guard pushed ob at CHI 31 for 19 yards (36-J.Owens).
- (2:58) (No Huddle) 24-K.Herbert right guard to CHI 33 for 2 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (2:17) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 25 for -8 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 24-K.Herbert to CHI 32 for 7 yards (25-D.King).
- (1:52) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to HOU 27, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-36-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.47 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.07 pts |
| Curl route | -1.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.24 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -1.74 pts |
| Outside run | -1.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.91 pts |
| Inside run | -1.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.29 pts |
| Deep post | -3.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.