Ravens vs Bengals — Week 5, 2022
The Ravens took over trailing 17-16 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 19, Bengals 17. Ravens won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 48.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 32 for 7 yards (21-M.Hilton).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 40 for 8 yards (24-V.Bell; 57-G.Pratt).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to CIN 36 for 19 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake left tackle to CIN 32 for 4 yards (57-G.Pratt).
- (:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to CIN 28 for 4 yards (68-J.Tupou; 92-B.Hill).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to CIN 25 for 3 yards (96-C.Sample).
- (:03) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.60 pts |
| Play action | +1.30 pts |
| QB keep | +1.06 pts |
| Quick out | +0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Deep post | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.