Falcons vs Browns — Week 4, 2022
The Falcons took over tied at 20 with 3:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 23, Browns 20. Falcons won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 9, 3:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 54.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:35) 42-C.Huntley right end to ATL 9 for no gain (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah; 94-A.Wright).
- (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to CLE 49 for 42 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 49.
- (2:50) 84-C.Patterson left end to CLE 28 for 6 yards (98-I.Rochell).
- (2:45) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to CLE 27 for 1 yard (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah, 94-A.Wright).
- (2:39) 25-T.Allgeier left end to CLE 27 for no gain (50-J.Phillips).
- (2:33) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.55 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.65 pts |
| Outside run | -1.73 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.84 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.91 pts |
| Curl route | -2.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.02 pts |
| Play action | -2.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.87 pts |
| Deep post | -4.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.