Bears vs Packers — Week 13, 2022
The Bears took over trailing 20-19 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 19, Packers 28. Packers won 28-19 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 31, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 50.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 36 for 5 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to CHI 44 for 8 yards (91-P.Smith).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 32-D.Montgomery.
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to GB 43 for 13 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 19-E.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at GB 28. 23-J.Alexander to GB 32 for 4 yards (19-E.St. Brown).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Curl route | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Play action | -0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.12 pts |
| Deep post | -2.57 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.