Titans vs Giants — Week 1, 2022
The Titans took over trailing 21-20 with 1:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Titans 20, Giants 21. Giants won 21-20 — the drive missed field goal.
Titans ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 1:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 47.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 18-K.Philips to TEN 33 for 8 yards (33-A.Robinson).
- (:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 18-K.Philips pushed ob at TEN 36 for 3 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-A.Hooper ran ob at TEN 47 for 6 yards (53-O.Ximines).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 81-A.Hooper (53-O.Ximines).
- (:23) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 18-K.Philips pushed ob at NYG 27 for 21 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (:18) 17-R.Tannehill right tackle to NYG 29 for -2 yards (71-J.Ellis).
- (:05) (No Huddle) 17-R.Tannehill spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:04) 14-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.15 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.90 pts |
| QB keep | +1.76 pts |
| Play action | +1.06 pts |
| Quick out | +1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.86 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Deep post | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -3.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.