Steelers vs Ravens — Week 17, 2022
The Steelers took over trailing 13-9 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 16, Ravens 13. Steelers won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 4:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 25.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) 22-N.Harris left guard to PIT 27 for 7 yards (36-C.Clark).
- (3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 22-N.Harris to PIT 29 for 2 yards (21-B.Stephens).
- (3:12) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to PIT 30 for 1 yard (92-J.Madubuike).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to 50 for 20 yards (21-B.Stephens).
- (2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 82-S.Sims to BAL 22 for 28 yards (32-M.Williams). Penalty on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 82-S.Sims pushed ob at BAL 18 for 4 yards (32-M.Williams).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right guard to BAL 13 for 5 yards (50-J.Houston).
- (1:49) 8-K.Pickett right guard to BAL 12 for 1 yard (92-J.Madubuike).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Johnson.
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right tackle to BAL 10 for 2 yards (96-B.Washington).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [6-P.Queen].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Deep post | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.77 pts |
| Outside run | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.