Titans vs Chiefs — Week 9, 2022
The Titans took over trailing 20-17 with 4:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Titans 17, Chiefs 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:04) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 26 for 1 yard (99-K.Saunders).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis sacked at TEN 14 for -12 yards (99-K.Saunders).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis sacked at TEN 9 for -5 yards (sack split by 95-C.Jones and 8-C.Dunlap).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 2-R.Woods (38-L.Sneed).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| Play action | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Deep post | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.