Colts vs Broncos — Week 5, 2022
The Colts took over trailing 9-6 with 2:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Colts 9, Broncos 9. Tied 9-9 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 2:13 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 24.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to IND 31 for 11 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at IND 25 for -6 yards (55-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (55-B.Chubb), touched at IND 25, and recovers at IND 30.
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce ran ob at IND 47 for 17 yards.
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell to DEN 43 for 10 yards (34-E.Bassey; 49-A.Singleton). DEN-42-N.Bonitto was injured during the play.
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-A.Pierce to DEN 38 for 5 yards (27-D.Mathis).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 35-D.Jackson up the middle to DEN 17 for 17 yards (30-C.Sterns; 22-K.Jackson).
- (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 35-D.Jackson to DEN 8 for 9 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (:14) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle.
- (:08) 7-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.88 pts |
| QB keep | +1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.37 pts |
| Deep post | +1.05 pts |
| Play action | +0.93 pts |
| Quick out | +0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Spike it | -2.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.