Bears vs Falcons — Week 11, 2022
The Bears took over trailing 27-24 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Bears 24, Falcons 27. Falcons won 27-24 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 29.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left end pushed ob at CHI 26 for 1 yard (37-D.Alford). CHI-1-J.Fields was injured during the play.
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields left tackle to CHI 30 for 4 yards (97-G.Jarrett; 27-R.Grant).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 32-D.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Hawkins at CHI 40. 32-J.Hawkins to CHI 40 for no gain (11-D.Mooney).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.13 pts |
| Deep post | +1.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.58 pts |
| Play action | +1.50 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.90 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.81 pts |
| Quick out | +0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Outside run | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| Spike it | -2.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.