Lions vs Jets — Week 15, 2022
The Lions took over trailing 17-13 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Jets 17. Lions won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 22, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.9% for Lions. Our model starts at 25.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Wright.
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle to DET 30 for 8 yards (57-C.Mosley, 30-M.Carter).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 40 for 10 yards (3-J.Whitehead).
- (3:19) 42-J.Jackson left tackle to DET 44 for 4 yards (97-N.Shepherd, 56-Qu.Williams).
- (2:38) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 45-J.Cabinda.
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 5 yards (22-T.Adams).
- (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.78 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep post | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -2.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.