Broncos vs Chiefs — Week 17, 2022
The Broncos took over trailing 27-24 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 24, Chiefs 27. Chiefs won 27-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 26, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.4% for Broncos. Our model starts at 33.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy to DEN 37 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton; 22-J.Thornhill).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 19-C.Edmonds up the middle to DEN 42 for 5 yards (55-F.Clark).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 10-J.Jeudy to DEN 42 for no gain (35-Ja.Watson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 19-C.Edmonds right guard to DEN 45 for 3 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 36 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| Curl route | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.05 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Quick out | +0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.21 pts |
| Deep post | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.