Seahawks vs Rams — Week 13, 2022

What really happened

Final: Seahawks 27, Rams 23. Seahawks won 27-23 — the drive scored.

Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:56 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 31.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 34 for 9 yards (53-E.Jones).
2. (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to SEA 41 for 7 yards (53-E.Jones).
3. (2:02) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 32-T.Jones [24-T.Rapp].
4. (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 87-N.Fant ran ob at LA 40 for 14 yards (6-D.Kendrick).
5. (1:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 16-T.Lockett.
6. (1:46) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Lockett (14-D.Durant).
7. (1:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to LA 30 for 10 yards (14-D.Durant).
8. (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Dallas left guard to LA 25 for 5 yards (45-B.Wagner; 92-J.Williams).
9. (:49) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-M.Goodwin to LA 8 for 17 yards (6-D.Kendrick; 33-N.Scott).
10. (:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.