Broncos vs Jaguars — Week 8, 2022
The Broncos took over trailing 17-14 with 3:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 21, Jaguars 17. Broncos won 21-17 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.5% for Broncos. Our model starts at 31.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 1-K.Hamler to JAX 33 for 47 yards (37-T.Herndon).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 14-C.Sutton.
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard to JAX 28 for 5 yards (23-F.Oluokun, 5-A.Cisco).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end to JAX 18 for 10 yards (5-A.Cisco).
- (2:00) 1-K.Hamler right end ran ob at JAX 9 for 9 yards (37-T.Herndon).
- (1:54) 28-L.Murray right tackle to JAX 2 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (1:47) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.97 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Deep post | -0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.