Panthers vs Giants — Week 2, 2022
The Panthers took over trailing 19-16 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 16, Giants 19. Giants won 19-16 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.7% for Panthers. Our model starts at 32.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 35 for 10 yards (41-M.McFadden).
- (2:53) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 3-R.Anderson.
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 46 for 4 yards (36-T.Jefferson) [30-D.Holmes].
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 37 for -9 yards (20-J.Love).
- (2:12) 10-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.15 pts |
| QB keep | +1.07 pts |
| Play action | +0.56 pts |
| Quick out | +0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Deep post | -0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.