Cowboys vs Texans — Week 14, 2022
The Cowboys took over trailing 23-20 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 2, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 27, Texans 23. Cowboys won 27-23 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 2, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.5% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 30.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 23 for 21 yards (5-J.Pitre, 36-J.Owens).
- (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 32 for 9 yards (2-T.Thomas).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 45 for 13 yards (1-T.Smith).
- (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to HOU 49 for 6 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 3 yards (2-T.Thomas).
- (1:42) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to HOU 40 for 6 yards (48-C.Harris; 58-C.Kirksey).
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to HOU 22 for 18 yards (5-J.Pitre).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 4 for 18 yards (36-J.Owens).
- (:55) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to HOU 2 for 2 yards (5-J.Pitre; 58-C.Kirksey).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Gallup (36-J.Owens). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.17 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-3.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.17 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.46 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| QB keep | -1.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.04 pts |
| Outside run | -2.22 pts |
| Inside run | -2.25 pts |
| Curl route | -2.41 pts |
| Play action | -2.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.57 pts |
| Deep post | -2.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.