Raiders vs Broncos — Week 11, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 16-13 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 16, Broncos 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 31.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 28-J.Jacobs ran ob at LV 29 for 4 yards.
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams.
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 84-K.Cole (27-D.Mathis).
- (3:12) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.17 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Deep post | -0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Spike it | -2.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.