Buccaneers vs Panthers — Week 17, 2022
The Buccaneers took over leading 24-21 with 2:24 left, 1st & Goal at the Panthers 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 24. Buccaneers won 30-24 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At the Panthers 6, 2:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.4% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 94.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:24) 7-L.Fournette up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-L.Fournette up the middle to CAR 1 for 5 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos; 7-S.Thompson).
- (2:00) 67-L.Goedeke reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+2.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +2.68 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.99 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| Quick out | -1.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.22 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -3.12 pts |
| Curl route | -3.57 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.39 pts |
| Deep post | -9.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.