Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 2, 2022
The Chiefs took over leading 24-17 with 3:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24. Chiefs won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 15, 3:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 91.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:55) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right end to LAC 33 for 52 yards (24-N.Adderley). PENALTY on LAC-3-D.James, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 33.
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon up the middle to LAC 17 for 1 yard (69-S.Joseph; 56-M.Fox).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to LAC 13 for 4 yards (49-D.Tranquill; 3-D.James).
- (3:24) 19-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.33 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -2.85 pts |
| Curl route | -3.14 pts |
| End-around | -5.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.13 pts |
| Deep post | -8.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.