Cowboys vs Giants — Week 3, 2022
The Cowboys took over leading 23-16 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 23, Giants 16. Cowboys won 23-16 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 92.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (97-D.Lawrence; 93-N.Williams).
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right guard to DAL 38 for 10 yards (30-D.Holmes; 20-J.Love).
- (2:46) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to DAL 40 for 2 yards (71-J.Ellis).
- (2:40) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 41 for 1 yard (55-J.Ward, 71-J.Ellis).
- (2:00) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson pushed ob at DAL 46 for 5 yards (20-J.Love; 55-J.Ward).
- (1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-R.James.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| QB keep | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Play action | -2.56 pts |
| Curl route | -2.98 pts |
| End-around | -5.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.93 pts |
| Deep post | -8.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.