Vikings vs Dolphins — Week 6, 2022
The Vikings took over leading 16-10 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 24, Dolphins 16. Vikings won 24-16 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 41, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 90.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) 4-D.Cook right tackle to MIN 47 for 6 yards (52-E.Roberts).
- (3:25) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Cousins pass to 19-A.Thielen is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.37 pts |
| Curl route | -2.76 pts |
| End-around | -4.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.68 pts |
| Deep post | -8.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.58 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.