Eagles vs Bears — Week 15, 2022
The Eagles took over leading 25-20 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 25, Bears 20. Eagles won 25-20 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Bears territory, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.0% for Eagles. Our model starts at 93.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to CHI 40 for 4 yards (96-A.Watts; 93-Ju.Jones).
- (2:37) 16-Q.Watkins left end to CHI 40 for no gain (31-Ja.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to CHI 28 for 12 yards (31-Ja.Jones).
- (1:18) 1-J.Hurts kneels to CHI 29 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 1-J.Hurts kneels to CHI 30 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.67 pts |
| Curl route | -2.98 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.08 pts |
| Deep post | -8.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.