Dolphins vs Steelers — Week 7, 2022
The Dolphins took over leading 16-10 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at the Steelers 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 16, Steelers 10. Dolphins won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.5% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 94.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to PIT 45 for 4 yards (99-L.Ogunjobi).
- (2:45) 31-R.Mostert up the middle to PIT 42 for 3 yards (57-M.Adams; 99-L.Ogunjobi).
- (2:41) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill. PIT-29-L.Wallace was injured during the play.
- (2:37) 4-T.Morstead punts 29 yards to PIT 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.67 pts |
| Curl route | -3.10 pts |
| End-around | -5.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.08 pts |
| Deep post | -8.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.