Falcons vs Cardinals — Week 17, 2022
The Falcons took over trailing 19-17 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 20, Cardinals 19. Falcons won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.1% for Falcons. Our model starts at 39.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) 4-D.Ridder pass short right to 84-C.Patterson to ATL 32 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins).
- (4:18) (No Huddle) 84-C.Patterson right tackle to ARI 46 for 22 yards (34-J.Thompson).
- (3:53) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to ARI 40 for 1 yard (9-I.Simmons).
- (3:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to ARI 30 for 10 yards (39-J.Whittaker).
- (2:38) 84-C.Patterson right tackle to ARI 27 for 3 yards (34-J.Thompson).
- (2:28) 25-T.Allgeier right end to ARI 27 for no gain (41-M.Sanders).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short left to 85-M.Pruitt to ARI 13 for 14 yards (31-C.Banjo; 39-J.Whittaker).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle to ARI 9 for 4 yards (25-Z.Collins).
- (1:49) 25-T.Allgeier right end to ARI 5 for 4 yards (95-L.Fotu).
- (1:03) 25-T.Allgeier right end to ARI 2 for 3 yards (9-I.Simmons).
- (:20) 4-D.Ridder kneels to ARI 3 for -1 yards.
- (:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.65 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.91 pts |
| Play action | -1.02 pts |
| Inside run | -1.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.55 pts |
| Deep post | -2.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.