49ers vs Broncos — Week 3, 2022
The 49ers took over trailing 11-10 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 10, Broncos 11. Broncos won 11-10 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 48.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 22-J.Wilson to SF 32 for 7 yards (47-J.Jewell) [5-R.Gregory].
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 19-D.Samuel.
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings to SF 37 for 5 yards (23-R.Darby).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 3-R.McCloud to SF 48 for 11 yards (21-K.Williams).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Griffith (22-K.Jackson) at DEN 41. 50-J.Griffith to DEN 42 for 1 yard (19-D.Samuel).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -1.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.63 pts |
| Deep post | -4.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.