Ravens vs Jaguars — Week 12, 2022
The Ravens took over trailing 20-19 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 27, Jaguars 28. Jaguars won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.4% for Ravens. Our model starts at 48.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 17-K.Drake.
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-D.Jackson to JAX 23 for 62 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to JAX 14 for 9 yards (48-C.Muma; 31-D.Williams).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to JAX 11 for 3 yards (2-R.Jenkins, 41-J.Allen).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle to JAX 12 for -1 yards (98-C.Peters, 23-F.Oluokun).
- (2:10) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.16 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| Curl route | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.27 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Play action | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.84 pts |
| Deep post | -2.15 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.