Broncos vs Seahawks — Week 1, 2022
The Broncos took over trailing 17-16 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 16, Seahawks 17. Seahawks won 17-16 — the drive missed field goal.
Broncos ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 22, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 46.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 27 for 5 yards (90-B.Mone).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 10-J.Jeudy.
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam to DEN 32 for 5 yards (6-Q.Diggs). Official measurement Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam to DEN 38 for 6 yards (57-C.Barton).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right guard to DEN 40 for 2 yards (99-A.Woods, 28-J.Coleman).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 33-J.Williams to DEN 49 for 9 yards (56-J.Brooks, 10-U.Nwosu).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 33-J.Williams to DEN 45 for -4 yards (57-C.Barton). SEA-57-C.Barton was injured during the play.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 33-J.Williams to SEA 46 for 9 yards (56-J.Brooks).
- (:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Play action | +0.55 pts |
| QB keep | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.85 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.12 pts |
| Deep post | -1.12 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.81 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.