Patriots vs Bengals — Week 16, 2022
The Patriots took over trailing 22-18 with 3:12 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 18, Bengals 22. Bengals won 22-18 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Bengals territory, 3:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 39.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 31 for 7 yards (96-C.Sample).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 25-Ma.Jones to CIN 16 for 15 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 9 for 7 yards (24-V.Bell; 92-B.Hill).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 5 for 4 yards (21-M.Hilton). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 7 for 2 yards (21-M.Hilton).
- (1:47) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 5 for 2 yards (57-G.Pratt).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to CIN 8 for -3 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-92-B.Hill at CIN 8. PENALTY on NE-10-M.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 8.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.38 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.69 pts |
| Quick out | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Deep post | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.