Buccaneers vs Cardinals — Week 16, 2022

What really happened

Final: Buccaneers 16, Cardinals 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.

Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 45, 4:49 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.8% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 40.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (4:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton (3-B.Baker).
2. (4:45) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 29-R.White to TB 49 for 4 yards (3-B.Baker, 56-B.Niemann).
3. (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to ARI 39 for 12 yards (25-Z.Collins).
4. (3:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage to ARI 31 for 8 yards (35-C.Matthew, 56-B.Niemann).
5. (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-R.White left tackle to ARI 26 for 5 yards (95-L.Fotu; 35-C.Matthew).
6. (3:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Evans (9-I.Simmons).
7. (3:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 29-R.White to ARI 24 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins, 56-B.Niemann).
8. (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 14-C.Godwin (34-J.Thompson).
9. (2:31) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.