Saints vs Vikings — Week 4, 2022
The Saints took over trailing 25-22 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Saints 25, Vikings 28. Vikings won 28-25 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 33.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 31 for 16 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (3:40) 28-L.Murray right end to NO 41 for 10 yards (99-D.Hunter).
- (3:08) 28-L.Murray up the middle to NO 43 for 2 yards (39-C.Sullivan).
- (2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 82-A.Trautman ran ob at MIN 43 for 14 yards.
- (2:43) 22-M.Ingram up the middle to MIN 42 for 1 yard (22-H.Smith).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 12-C.Olave (3-C.Dantzler).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Callaway.
- (1:56) 3-W.Lutz 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.93 pts |
| Play action | +0.75 pts |
| QB keep | +0.55 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Deep post | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.