Panthers vs Browns — Week 1, 2022
The Panthers took over trailing 23-21 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 24, Browns 26. Browns won 26-24 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 33.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CAR 46 for 26 yards (22-G.Delpit).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (5-A.Walker).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CLE 29 for 21 yards (43-J.Johnson). PENALTY on CLE-43-J.Johnson, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 29.
- (1:27) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 15, and recovers at CLE 15.
- (1:24) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CLE 15 for no gain (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah; 43-J.Johnson).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to CLE 16 for -1 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (1:17) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.99 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.60 pts |
| QB keep | +1.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.98 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.