Cowboys vs Eagles — Week 16, 2022
The Cowboys took over tied at 34 with 4:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 40, Eagles 34. Cowboys won 40-34 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 40, 4:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.2% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 61.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to PHI 44 for 16 yards (43-K.White).
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 34 for 10 yards (33-J.Scott).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 85-N.Brown (24-J.Bradberry).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 85-N.Brown to PHI 29 for 5 yards (57-T.Edwards).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Gallup.
- (2:24) 19-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| QB keep | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Curl route | -0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.01 pts |
| Spike it | -2.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.45 pts |
| Deep post | -5.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.