Giants vs Ravens — Week 6, 2022
The Giants took over trailing 20-17 with 2:50 left, 1st & 10 at the Ravens 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Giants 24, Ravens 20. Giants won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At the Ravens 13, 2:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 62.0% for Giants. Our model starts at 62.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 26-S.Barkley. 8-D.Jones pass short right to 82-D.Bellinger to BAL 6 for 7 yards (36-C.Clark, 44-M.Humphrey).
- (1:46) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+10.09 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-7.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +10.09 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.76 pts |
| QB keep | +1.04 pts |
| Quick out | +0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.31 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.04 pts |
| Curl route | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.81 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.56 pts |
| Deep post | -7.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.