Packers vs Patriots — Week 4, 2022
The Packers took over tied at 24 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Packers 27, Patriots 24. Packers won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 43, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 60.9% for Packers. Our model starts at 61.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right [21-A.Phillips].
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones to GB 47 for 4 yards (13-Ja.Jones).
- (2:56) 28-A.Dillon right tackle to NE 40 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 81-J.Deguara. Penalty on GB-71-J.Myers, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Doubs. Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (2:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NE 2, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.98 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Curl route | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.70 pts |
| Spike it | -2.81 pts |
| Deep post | -3.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.