Seahawks vs Raiders — Week 12, 2022
The Seahawks took over tied at 34 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 34, Raiders 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.2% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 56.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 31-D.Dallas to SEA 29 for 4 yards (50-J.Brown; 52-D.Perryman).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-M.Goodwin to SEA 35 for 6 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Lockett.
- (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf ran ob at SEA 47 for 12 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 30 for -5 yards (98-M.Crosby).
- (:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to LV 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 84-K.Cole MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 9. 84-K.Cole to LV 9 for no gain (22-T.Brown).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.37 pts |
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.72 pts |
| Outside run | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.69 pts |
| Deep post | -2.15 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.