Steelers vs Raiders — Week 16, 2022
The Steelers took over trailing 10-6 with 2:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 13, Raiders 10. Steelers won 13-10 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 24, 2:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.7% for Steelers. Our model starts at 23.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to PIT 30 for 6 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 47 for 17 yards (59-L.Masterson) [98-M.Crosby].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth to LV 43 for 10 yards (25-T.Moehrig). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 22-N.Harris [98-M.Crosby].
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to LV 24 for 19 yards (27-S.Webb).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 22-N.Harris pushed ob at LV 19 for 5 yards (27-S.Webb).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris to LV 21 for -2 yards (37-T.Hall). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 22-N.Harris.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth to LV 15 for 4 yards (27-S.Webb).
- (:55) 8-K.Pickett up the middle to LV 14 for 1 yard (91-B.Nichols; 37-T.Hall).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 14-G.Pickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.58 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.58 pts |
| Deep post | +1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +1.07 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.59 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.53 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.