Falcons vs Panthers — Week 8, 2022
The Falcons took over trailing 28-24 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 34, Panthers 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 23.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 5-D.London (24-C.Henderson).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short middle to 25-T.Allgeier ran ob at ATL 41 for 16 yards (7-S.Thompson).
- (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to CAR 42 for 17 yards (26-D.Jackson). CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep right to 14-D.Byrd for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.52 pts |
| Deep post | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| Play action | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.54 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Outside run | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.