Commanders vs Titans — Week 5, 2022
The Commanders took over trailing 21-17 with 4:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 17, Titans 21. Titans won 21-17 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 4:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 26.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 24-A.Gibson to WAS 20 for 9 yards (51-D.Long).
- (4:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 24-A.Gibson.
- (4:01) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 89-C.Sims. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (3:55) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 22 for 2 yards (51-D.Long; 53-D.Cole).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz to WAS 17 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at WAS 17. 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to WAS 31 for 9 yards (26-K.Fulton).
- (2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left end to WAS 33 for 2 yards (97-K.Strong).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 89-C.Sims to WAS 40 for 7 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 48 for 8 yards (51-D.Long).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 23-J.McKissic to TEN 47 for 5 yards (47-A.Adams).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to TEN 39 for 8 yards (39-T.Mitchell; 31-K.Byard).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 87-J.Bates pushed ob at TEN 39 for 10 yards (47-A.Adams).
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at TEN 29 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.81 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -1.32 pts |
| Quick out | -1.38 pts |
| Deep post | -1.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.83 pts |
| Outside run | -1.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.