Browns vs Ravens — Week 7, 2022
The Browns took over trailing 23-20 with 3:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Browns 20, Ravens 23. Ravens won 23-20 — the drive missed field goal.
Browns ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 16, 3:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 27.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 24-N.Chubb (4-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right end to CLE 21 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at BAL 42 for 37 yards (26-G.Stone) [99-O.Oweh].
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 88-H.Bryant to BAL 41 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton, 6-P.Queen).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell pushed ob at BAL 34 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end pushed ob at BAL 37 for 7 yards (99-O.Oweh).
- (2:09) 3-C.York 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (40-M.Harrison), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.56 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | -0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.04 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Play action | -1.25 pts |
| Outside run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep post | -1.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.19 pts |
| Spike it | -2.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.