Cardinals vs Eagles — Week 5, 2022

What really happened

Final: Cardinals 17, Eagles 20. Eagles won 20-17 — the drive missed field goal.

Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:45 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.1% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 25.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray up the middle to ARI 40 for 15 yards (22-M.Epps).
2. (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at ARI 47 for 7 yards (22-M.Epps).
3. (1:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 86-Z.Ertz.
4. (1:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 47 for 11 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).
5. (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-R.Moore ran ob at PHI 42 for 5 yards (33-J.Scott).
6. (:52) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-M.Brown to PHI 34 for 8 yards (2-D.Slay).
7. (:37) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray spiked the ball to stop the clock.
8. (:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray up the middle to PHI 25 for 9 yards (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).
9. (:23) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray spiked the ball to stop the clock.
10. (:22) 15-M.Ammendola 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.