Raiders vs Steelers — Week 16, 2022
The Raiders took over leading 10-6 with 4:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 10, Steelers 13. Steelers won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 24, 4:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 79.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:32) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 29 for 5 yards (99-L.Ogunjobi, 97-C.Heyward).
- (3:48) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 29 for no gain (97-C.Heyward).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.
- (3:02) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick out | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB keep | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Play action | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Curl route | -1.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.84 pts |
| End-around | -4.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.52 pts |
| Deep post | -6.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.