Dolphins vs Bears — Week 9, 2022
The Dolphins took over leading 35-32 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 35, Bears 32. Dolphins won 35-32 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 24, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.7% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 76.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to MIA 23 for -1 yards (53-N.Morrow, 6-K.Gordon).
- (3:00) 31-R.Mostert left end to MIA 23 for no gain (96-A.Watts).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle (33-J.Johnson) [99-T.Gipson].
- (2:50) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CHI 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 28 for 2 yards (27-K.Crossen; 20-J.Bethel).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Outside run | +0.35 pts |
| QB keep | +0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.04 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.23 pts |
| Inside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Curl route | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Play action | -1.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.51 pts |
| End-around | -3.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.14 pts |
| Deep post | -5.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.