Ravens vs Steelers — Week 14, 2022
The Ravens took over leading 16-14 with 2:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 16, Steelers 14. Ravens won 16-14 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 21, 2:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.6% for Ravens. Our model starts at 72.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left tackle to BAL 27 for 6 yards (34-T.Edmunds; 97-C.Heyward).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to BAL 28 for 1 yard (57-M.Adams; 97-C.Heyward).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right tackle to BAL 34 for 6 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:00) 12-A.Brown kneels to BAL 31 for -3 yards.
- (1:19) 12-A.Brown kneels to BAL 30 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 12-A.Brown kneels to BAL 29 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.87 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Curl route | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Play action | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -3.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.52 pts |
| Deep post | -4.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.