Steelers vs Buccaneers — Week 6, 2022
The Steelers took over leading 20-18 with 4:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18. Steelers won 20-18 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.5% for Steelers. Our model starts at 67.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:38) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris right tackle to PIT 33 for 8 yards (24-C.Davis; 58-S.Barrett).
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky Aborted. 61-M.Cole FUMBLES at PIT 28, recovered by PIT-10-M.Trubisky at PIT 20.
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 37 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (2:26) 22-N.Harris right end to PIT 40 for 3 yards (58-S.Barrett, 95-D.Senat).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left guard to PIT 36 for -4 yards (30-D.Delaney).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool ran ob at TB 38 for 26 yards.
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky right end to TB 29 for 9 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (2:00) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to TB 26 for 3 yards (45-D.White).
- (1:19) 10-M.Trubisky kneels to TB 27 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 10-M.Trubisky kneels to TB 29 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| QB keep | +0.17 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.04 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Curl route | -0.71 pts |
| Play action | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -3.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.66 pts |
| Deep post | -4.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.