Giants vs Jaguars — Week 7, 2022
The Giants took over leading 20-17 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Giants 23, Jaguars 17. Giants won 23-17 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 23, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.0% for Giants. Our model starts at 74.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at NYG 36 for 13 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
- (4:23) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 43 for 7 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
- (3:37) 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at JAX 37 for 20 yards (31-D.Williams; 5-A.Cisco).
- (3:30) 31-M.Breida up the middle to JAX 35 for 2 yards (52-D.Hamilton; 98-C.Peters).
- (2:46) 8-D.Jones left end to JAX 20 for 15 yards (5-A.Cisco).
- (2:00) 26-S.Barkley right end to JAX 19 for 1 yard (94-F.Fatukasi).
- (1:57) 26-S.Barkley right end to JAX 20 for -1 yards (52-D.Hamilton).
- (1:11) 26-S.Barkley right end to JAX 16 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 32-T.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at JAX 16 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 32-T.Campbell).
- (1:07) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.49 pts |
| Outside run | +0.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.13 pts |
| Inside run | -0.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Quick out | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Curl route | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.68 pts |
| End-around | -3.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.28 pts |
| Deep post | -5.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.65 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.