Falcons vs Saints — Week 1, 2022
The Falcons took over leading 26-24 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 26, Saints 27. Saints won 27-26 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.0% for Falcons. Our model starts at 71.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle to ATL 32 for 7 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson right guard to ATL 40 for 8 yards (99-S.Tuttle).
- (2:07) 84-C.Patterson left guard to ATL 46 for 6 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota left end to ATL 44 for -2 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (55-K.Elliss; 92-M.Davenport).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota left end to NO 42 for 8 yards (32-T.Mathieu; 23-M.Lattimore).
- (1:40) 1-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 42, and recovers at NO 45. 1-M.Mariota to NO 42 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NO 10, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Harty. PENALTY on ATL-48-L.McCullough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 10.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.12 pts |
| QB keep | -0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Play action | -0.56 pts |
| Curl route | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.26 pts |
| End-around | -3.33 pts |
| Deep post | -4.54 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.