Eagles vs Commanders — Week 10, 2022

What really happened

Final: Eagles 21, Commanders 32. Commanders won 32-21 — the drive turned it over.

Eagles ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 3:26 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.3% for Eagles. Our model starts at 18.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:26) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 22 for 2 yards (52-J.Davis; 94-D.Payne).
2. (2:54) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 26-M.Sanders.
3. (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 17 for -5 yards (90-M.Sweat).
4. (2:08) 8-A.Siposs punts 53 yards to WAS 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-D.Milne to WAS 47 for 12 yards (48-P.Johnson, 45-R.Lovato).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.